1/27/99

99 TO WATCH IN '99.

11/01/99

HARDWARE

- Compaq Do Or Die. Compaq got off to a good start in 1998 by buying Digital Equipment, but this year will be the real test. Can company ceo Eckhard Pfeiffer lead the former PC vendor to successfully integrate the different business arms, ranging from a service organization and a RISC/Unix systems line to the AltaVista search engine?

- Dell's Nose Pressed Against The Glass House. Dell, like all PC vendors, is facing shrinking margins in its mainstay low-end systems. With rack-mounted units becoming more prevalent, and powerful eight-way, Intel-based servers coming this year, Dell has a shot at building a business in high-end servers.

- Merced's Path. The IA-64 architecture, although not due until mid-2000, will cast a long shadow this year. Intel is pitching Merced as the platform of choice for data center-class servers. In preparation, vendors of mainframes and RISC/Unix systems will scramble to show their systems are not obsolete.

- The Xeon Chip Challenge. Look for servers based on last year's chip from Intel to gain power this year, as vendors come out with eight-, 32-and 64-processor servers that challenge the computing power of RISC systems and mainframes.

- Internet Appliances. An emerging class of servers and clients, such as the PalmPilot and Vadem Inc.'s Clio mini-notebook, trade limited functionality for low price and ease of configuration. This year, will those gadgets graduate from toys to full-fledged enterprise resources?

- Last Hope For Mainframes. In the past, pundits said mainframes were obsolete. Now we've seen that e-business apps need the kind of rock-steady reliability and high transactional throughput mainframes offer. But their future is not assured-Dataquest predicts that although prices of mainframes will decline, sales will be flat.

- Plug-And-Work Thin Servers. Simplicity is the draw for this emerging class of products. They include the e.go Commerce Server from Encanto Networks Inc. and the proposed Raw Iron database server from Oracle and Sun that handle only one function, such as Web or database serving, or workgroup Internet access. Users need to decide if one function is enough.

- Last Stand For NCs. The 3-year-old vision for the network computer has been hammered by reality: late shipments for both NCs and Java applications and plummeting PC prices. Although NC software is finally falling into place, NC vendors need to demonstrate real benefits or they'll lose the little credibility they have left.

- Storage Area Networks. The next 12 months will see the first deployments of storage area networks, which funnel data between servers and storage devices via high-speed Fibre Channel. Vendors will work closely with pioneering IT managers to ensure flawless SAN operation in order to convince managers sitting on the sidelines that SANs can handle the load.

- Storage Goes Mainstream. Networking vendors such as 3Com, and server and workstation suppliers such as Dell Computer and Sun Microsystems significantly ramped up storage products in 1998. Look for other suppliers also to buttress their storage game plans.

- Battle Over Tape Standards. 1999 will see the next-generation SuperDLT from Quantum Corp., as well as Linear Tape Open, a competing, noncompatible standard from industry heavyweights Hewlett-Packard, IBM and Seagate Technology Inc. That trio may have the marketing punch to get IT managers to switch formats in the middle of their data streams.

NETWORKING

- 'D' As In Delay. Digital subscriber line services will become more widely available, but slowly. The Bells, for the most part, will continue to drag their feet deploying DSL. Users on the two coasts and in major Midwest cities such as Chicago will likely see DSL before most, thanks to the efforts of competitive local exchange carriers.

- Shed No Tiers. All traffic is not created equal. IT managers, as they move more of their applications to those based on IP and Web technologies, will demand tiered services with appropriate service level guarantees to ensure that critical traffic gets handled adequately. Service providers will try to match this demand with a jumbled mess of multiple services all with different pricing structures and guarantees.

- Edge-y CPE. Edge devices in corporate networks will incorporate new features that have previously been sold separately. Expect to see DSUs, routers and other edge devices add bandwidth management services so IT managers can gain more control over their traffic. Early versions will let managers control access to bandwidth based on user or application.

- Radio broadband. Service providers will try to meet the growing demand for high bandwidth by offering fixed wireless services at speeds of T1, T3 and higher. The Bells view fixed wireless as an economical means of delivering voice, data, Internet and video services; the long distance carriers see them as a way to bypass the local loop.

- Switching Inside. In what could be a chip off the old block, Intel may be poised to make a run at the net-working big boys. With silicon the main ingredient for boosting networking speeds, Intel will use its microprocessor smarts to do battle. Look for Intel to put its silicon where the market is-high-speed switching.

- CLEC Reckoning. Competitive local exchange carriers will continue to expand their services into more geographical areas. But many CLECs may find their plans scaled back as the venture capital community, which is funding most of this expansion, takes a closer look at the returns in that market.

- At Last, The Sequel. Internet2, the collaborative effort of more than 120 universities, will become the testing ground for new Internet technologies. The group will focus on IPv6, multicasting and quality of service. Such technologies will be essential for new applications like collaborative work programs.

- Big, And Getting Bigger. A bidding war for AirTouch Communications got the new year off to a consolidating start, continuing 1998's merger-and-acquisition frenzy. If SBC Communications Inc.'s acquisition of Ameritech is approved, only four of the seven regional Bells will remain. And equipment vendors now routinely use acquisitions to supplant research and development.

- The Voice Of Delta Three. Enterprise-class IP voice services will be a major focus for Delta Three Inc. in the next year. The next-gen telco has 38 points of presence worldwide, with plans to more than double that amount this year. It also plans to unveil unified messaging and 800 directory support.

- Convergent Reality Check. The advent of convergence has been bandied about so much during the past few years that most observers have lost sight of its significance. But vendors made some strides in 1998, developing devices capable of delivering voice, video and data through a single conduit. Look for some early deployments of these systems in 1999, giving IT managers a sneak preview of how converged networks operate.

- Richer IP-PSTN Integration. If IP telephony is ever going to make a significant dent in the enterprise, reliability and enhanced services at the same level of the public switched telephone network (PSTN) must be part of the mix. Expect some important steps to be made in this regard, paced by developments supporting interoperability and scalability. With quality of service added to the mix, IP telephony will be better positioned to mimic PSTN services.

- Faster Than Fast. With the price of Fast Ethernet ports continuing to drop, the need for speed in the backbone has become that much more important. Gigabit Ethernet deployments will flourish this year as IT managers evolve their backbones to handle 100 Mbps to the desktop. Falling prices on Gigabit Ethernet ports also should foster deployment.

- Share And Share Alike? Countless providers have taken a run at the shared-tenant services market in the past 15 years, but the Internet may be the variable that makes it viable. AT&T, Intermedia Communications Inc. and other service providers are all busy trying to persuade campuswide users or skyscraper tenants to tap all manner of Web, voice and data services at cheaper prices than local incumbent carriers could provide. Whether customers respond to shared-tenant services remains an open question.

- Packetized Voice. It's a question of when and not if for voice over IP, but packet-based voice will remain in the evolutionary stage for most of 1999 as the industry wrestles with issues such as reliability, interoperability and scalability. By 2001, VoIP will no longer be a curiosity.

- A Force To Be Reckoned With. Cisco spent the last part of 1998 telling everyone who would listen that the company's products are the guts of the Internet. Not only will they continue to dominate in the enterprise, but they will be a force with service providers and in the convergence world.

- Lucent Gets Enterprising. Well known in the service provider world, Lucent Technologies will make its presence felt in enterprise networking this year. After grouping its line of networking gear under the Cajun name late last year, Lucent is poised to make a run on IT shops.

- Start-Up City. After a year of blowing smoke and betas, Avici Systems Inc., Juniper Networks Inc., Pluris Inc. and other vendors betting the shop on terabit routers will move into the mainstream this year. Look for one or two to dominate and then be acquired.

- Our New Policy. If vendors can convince IT managers that the setup headaches are worth the perceived benefits, policy networking will be a must have this year. A number of vendors have already begun to line up behind directory providers, and the rally cry may just be: "Gentlemen, start your directory engines."

INTERNET BUSINESS & POLICY

- Internet Stocks Fall Back To Earth? We don't pretend to know when, or even if, Internet stocks will plummet. But no issue may be more important to the continued growth of the Internet than whether 1998's astronomical valuations will hold up.

- The Demise of E-comm Start-ups. This isn't the wild, wild West any longer. Smaller Internet commerce start-ups will be hard-pressed in 1999 to demonstrate they can compete against IBM, Microsoft and Sun Microsystems. Look for BroadVision, Connect Inc., InterWorld Corp. and Open Market to be bought out or fade to black.

- Pick Your Acquisition Target. Companies paired up last year faster than singles on "The Love Boat." Look for a whole lot of romance again this year with a weak Cabletron, a strengthening and expanding 3Com, and repeat Street beater Ascend Communications topping the list of candidates that might have a new corporate address in 1999.

- Prolonged Fight Over Personal Privacy. Privacy advocates inside the government and elsewhere will keep the pressure on the Internet community to regulate itself. If the industry fails to show good faith, count on the feds to step in.

- Coming To Grips With The Euro. Global enterprises will continue to feel the effects of electronic conversion to the Euro dollar Conversion needs to happen in all companies that funnel transactions through Europe, potentially causing a Y2K-like remediation problem.

- The New AOL Order. This year, IT managers may see the first benefits of the proposed acquisition of Netscape by America Online. The merger, which includes a side deal with Sun Microsystems, could help deliver integrated Web and e-commerce offerings that leverage AOL's content, Sun's Java and Netscape's browser and enterprise software.

- Loosening up on Crypto. Industry proponents on Capitol Hill have vowed to introduce legislation to loosen U.S. restrictions on the export of strong encryption. Passage would pave the way for a wider range of U.S. developers to sell strong encryption products overseas.

- Unisys: Comeback Kid. For many years, Unisys Corp. was looking about as obsolete as its own Univac computer. But under the leadership of new CEO Lawrence Weinbach, the company is turning around by eliminating its entire desktop and low-end server lines, and focusing entirely on high-end systems and systems integration. This year, Unisys hopes to further its success with a 32-way system based on PC processors.

- The Taxman Cometh? The merits of the value-added tax-free zone advocated by the United States will continue to be debated, but at a less feverish pitch. Companies will continue to comply with local tax laws so that e-commerce won't be stalled by the VAT debate.

- The Asia Effect. Asian economies will still be a bellwether for many investors and global firms. The ripple effects could keep dragging down profits, and overall IT investment could suffer further, slowing migration to Internet technologies.

- Uncle Sam Cuts The Cord. The effort to transfer the Internet Domain Name System to the private sector is far from over. The Clinton-supported Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) now must win favor in Congress. Meanwhile, Network Solutions' contract to exclusively administer top-level domains expires in June.

- Charming Chairman. Keep an eye on Rep. Billy Tauzin, R-La., head of the House subcommittee on telecom. Congress is looking to jump-start the Telecommunications Act of 1996, as the competition it was supposed to encourage remains largely unrealized. Tauzin has a direct line to the newly elected speaker of the house, J. Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., who also sits on the subcommittee.

PEOPLE

- Michael Prince, Burlington Coat Factory. This CIO has placed his apparel retailer on the cutting edge of IT technology. Burlington was among the first companies to deploy thin-client hardware; is now deploying Linux on the server and desktop; and plans to share voice and data over the same frame relay connections. Burlington's trials are benchmarks for the rest of us.

- Peter de Jager, Petrus And Associates. Call him a modern-day Paul Revere. For more than six years, the Y2K consultant has worked tirelessly to expose the problems that might be caused by the millennium bug and help find ways to fix them. In 1999, de Jager's expertise will become more vital than ever as IT fends off Y2K panic attacks.

- Zack Rinat, Sun's NetDynamics Division. The former NetDynamics CEO loves to cause a stir. He's pushed Sun to support COM and non-Solaris OSes, and has even criticized Java at times. But can he remain an iconoclast as Sun drives forward its Java product strategy with a large dose of competing Netscape software?

- Mike Anderson, Home Depot. Enterprises are making big bets on Java in 1999, none bigger than this CIO. Anderson is developing a slew of back-office, business-critical applications on Java. Even in-store customers will notice as Home Depot rolls out Java-based hand-helds in retail locations. If Home Depot wins big, so will many other Java pioneers.

- Marc Andreessen, Netscape. Will the one-time wunderkind really make his home in leafy Virginia? Don't count on it. Andreessen may look to leapfrog today's Web commerce battlefield and land at the long-awaited intersection of PCs, networks and home electronics. One hint at his affinity for convergence: an investment in digital VCR company Replay Networks.

- Linus Torvalds and Eric Raymond, Open-Source Pioneers. The open-source movement is experiencing some quiet growing pains as it becomes more mainstream. Linux inventor Torvalds and open-source popularizer Raymond are two likely candidates to calm the waters, though both-particularly Raymond-have their detractors.

- Fadi Chehade, RosettaNet. Chehade gave up his job as vice president of Ingram Micro's customer information services division last year to head RosettaNet, the industry effort to define standard product codes and business practices for extranet trading. One of the Internet's most eloquent and forceful speakers, Chehade's job in 1999 will be to make sure the effort isn't railroaded by competing interests.

- Karl Schohl, Automotive Network Exchange. The business manager of the massive extranet called ANX, Schohl has so far focused his efforts on building the bandwidth and security infrastructure necessary to run an Internet trading hub for the automotive industry. He is likely to spend a good portion of this year cobbling together committees to make sure the industry has common methodologies in place to launch ordering, forecasting and replenishment applications.

- James Vanderslice, IBM. Vanderslice, who oversees Big Blue's networking and systems business, turned around IBM's storage systems unit and now has the reins of the company's entire technology group. The group controls IBM's OEM business, which could grow to $44 billion this year. It takes many strings to tie together IBM's e-business strategy, and Vanderslice is holding onto the ends of increasingly more of those strings, including the network hardware division.

- Steve Ballmer, Microsoft. The newly appointed president has a full plate in 1999: Bring Windows 2000 to market and push SQL Server 7.0 deeper into the enterprise, while deciding how Microsoft can benefit from the open-source software model without jeopardizing Windows.

- Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson. Managing the biggest antitrust trial in recent history, Jackson seems intent on finishing the Microsoft trial in record time. How this Reagan appointee will rule is anyone's guess.

- Michael Armstrong, AT&T. AT&T's chairman is out to prove he's a good juggler. Armstrong needs to integrate $75 billion worth of acquisitions, including Teleport Communications Group, Tele-Communications Inc. and IBM Global Network, as well as their far-flung networks.

- Ivan Seidenberg, Bell Atlantic. The chairman and CEO's opening parry for the new year? An audacious $45 billion bid for wireless provider AirTouch Communications Inc., which set off a bidding war. He's also got a $53 billion deal to acquire GTE Corp. awaiting regulatory blessing. The megadeals aren't likely to end there.

- Bill Joy, Sun. Joy will see the unveiling of his ultimate pet project, Jini, a massively distributed computing architecture that makes computing as ubiquitous as the electrical or phone networks. Jini offers a bigger payoff than even Java, if Joy can successfully steer the ship.

- Debra Chrapaty, E*Trade. The CIO will spend much of this year looking to extend the e-broker's reach beyond PCs to TV sets and handheld devices via wireless networks. E*Trade will also dabble in voice over IP, but there are no plans to embrace CORBA, despite a move into object-oriented programming. Full-service firms beware.

SOFTWARE

- App Server Blues. Has a market ever exploded and then contracted as quickly as the application server arena? Small vendors without a big sugar daddy may be hard-pressed to survive in 1999 unless they specialize like mad. Look for large vendors to buy object-oriented expertise or business-rules engines.

- SunSoft In The Shade? Sun's software ambitions are huge, but its history in software has been weak. Will it be able to shepherd Java as well as more ambitious software projects such as Jini? 1999 will tell if Sun is a software player or pretender.

- Object Advances For Servers. The Java Platform for the Enterprise (JPE) is Sun's attempt to define a server-side infrastructure for Java, to be rolled out over the next two years. We'll see. Meanwhile CORBA 3.0 will appear next year, formalizing its growing relation with Java. IBM chief scientist Ian Brackenbury sees Java APIs as the ideal front end for CORBA piping. Looks like a good marriage.

- IBM and Java. Which is the most important vendor in the Java universe, Sun or IBM? 1999 should make that question even tougher to answer. IBM now has Java VMs running on all its platforms, and it's rolling out Enterprise JavaBeans right behind it. And with a massive service business and strong enterprise software ties, IBM could actually make money from Java.

- XML Fractionalization. XML will be more important than ever, and as with Java, look for it to become more highly politicized, especially in the definition of XML schemas. Microsoft XML point man James Allard calls it the next big computer API. Avoiding the Tower of Babel will be a major challenge.

- Throwing Up The Sash On Windows NT. Microsoft has provided few tools for managing Windows NT across a large enterprise. Look for third-party software and services vendors to step into the breach, launching a variety of tools for keeping NT under control.

- Windows 2000 To Ship. Stung by its inability to ship Windows 2000 in 1998, Microsoft will move heaven and earth to ship the OS in 1999. Expect it to arrive sooner rather than later (and maybe cheaper than expected) after Beta 3 is released in February. Users without big Y2K headaches may jump on Windows 2000 to consolidate their NT and Windows 9x bases.

- Linux Flying High. Linux skyrocketed to legitimacy in 1998. The darling of the open-source software movement, Linux is expanding beyond ISPs and academia. Few observers think Linux-based database and application servers or productivity apps will woo large numbers of enterprise customers; but the pundits could be proven wrong.

- Red Hat Software Rides The Linux Wave. Scoring minority investments by Netscape and Intel in 1998, Red Hat Software Inc. rose above the pack as the leading distributor of Linux. But can it continue to add value to the operating system now that big boys AOL/Netscape, IBM, Oracle and Sun Microsystems have skin in the Linux game?

- Mozilla.org. There's still a lot at stake in the browser market, which has been transformed by the AOL deal, Microsoft antitrust suit and more. But by squeezing as much standards-based technology-including XML and the Document Object Model-into its Gecko layout engine and eventual Communicator 5.0 browser, the Mozilla.org band of open-source developers will determine the base functionality of the Internet for years to come.

- IBM as an open-source wild card. Call it a hunch, but IBM looks to us like the wild card in the open-source movement. Already, it has supported the Apache Web server; more recently it released its Jikes Java compiler as open source. Ru-mors swirl that it may back Linux, particularly on the desktop, or make other big open-source bets.

- Management systems take to the Web. The slew of Web-enabled network and systems management applications unveiled in 1998 will now be put to work. Web browsers and Java applets will enable management from anywhere, and Web reporting capabilities will help CEOs and users to get a clear picture of IT performance.

- Standards to boost management. Long viewed as a slow starter, the Desktop Management Task Force has a chance to accomplish something that no standards group has done since the creation of SNMP: develop universally accepted network and systems management specifications. The Common Information Model (CIM) will help integrate management applications, and the Directory Enabled Networking standard will link directories and management systems.

- New management approach. One start-up will be offering the next generation of management systems. Manage.com, led by some of the management industry's most influential executives, will deploy its own platform based entirely on Java, Web technology and the DMTF's CIM. Look for it to turn some heads-and maybe turn around some IT departments.

- Domino 5. Lotus will ship its messaging platform, but IT managers will move slowly to upgrade. The bigger news could be Microsoft Exchange. While the new Platinum release could easily slip into next year (it is contingent on the release of Active Directory in Windows 2000), the installed base of Exchange could surpass that of Notes and Domino.

- Unified messaging. Vendors have been trying to sell the concept of a common repository for voice mail, fax and e-mail to skeptical IT managers for more than five years. Some large organizations will start to deploy unified messaging systems; others will give it more thought.

- ERP lives on. Or at least it will take on a new life. Many companies have turned to enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems to replace aging legacy systems that were not Year 2000-compliant. Now the focus will be on further automation of manufacturing supply chains and linking ERP systems to sales force automation and customer care applications. Look for SAP AG to ship its widely touted procurement module. And also expect some fiscal challenges among the big players, with an acquisition or two.

- An Epiphany beyond ERP. Start-up Epiphany is touting software that delivers a customized data warehouse with built-in data-mining and analytical tools. With $26 million in venture funding and 20 enterprise customers so far, Epiphany ships products that extract data from ERP, sales force automation, data warehouses and even legacy systems. Watch for this concept to be aped by Siebel Systems Inc. and SAP.

- Metadirectories defined. Metadirectories will gain visibility as the linchpin for distributed computing-the resource that manages users, objects, applications and authorizations. Novell is furthest along with NDS while Microsoft's Active Directory is in the wings, and standards-based approaches, using X.500 and LDAP, are coming from Netscape and others.

- Securing extranets. Demand will surge this year for software security applica tions that give IT managers more flexibility than hardware VPN products and firewalls to control user access to extranets. Popular will be software that combines security, centralized management, and applications and network integration.

- Security from standards. IT managers should reap the real benefits of the IP Security standard for authenticating and encrypting IP traffic by the end of the year as IPSec v.6 is adopted for e-commerce. De facto standards for end-to-end security will emerge as vendor-driven consortiums, such as the Adaptive Network Security Alliance, forge tighter links among diverse security products.

- Firewall/content filtering. The worlds of firewalls and content-inspection tools will converge this year. Industry-driven efforts to develop a Common Content Inspection API and partnerships should bear fruit by year's end. The goal of the CCI API is to forge greater interoperability among firewalls, antivirus software, Java and ActiveX security tools, and Web blocking products.

- Frameworks: bite the bullet or the dust. Many organizations that balked at the effort to deploy enterprise frameworks will either go forward with them or move in another direction, thus determining the success or failure of vendors such as Tivoli Systems Inc. and Computer Associates.

- Web-enabled EDI. Corporate IT is voting through its actions, making Internet EDI a much bigger issue. Established EDI companies will have a tough time adjusting against a field of competitors with Internet-centric software.

- Clients and servers thin down. An old idea-centralizing apps on servers and reducing complexity on the desktop-is a new hit. Citrix Systems Inc.'s ICA protocol has strong support among terminal and device makers; Microsoft will integrate Windows Terminal Edition into Windows 2000, but its refusal to support concurrent user pricing remains a bone of contention.

- Application outsourcing. Oracle chief Larry Ellison last year professed that many small businesses, such as medical practices and law firms, would be better off outsourcing their applications. Why have a server in a doctor's office, he asked. Many companies will gravitate toward outsourcing their e-mail as well.

- Web-enabling mainframe apps. Although Year 2000 testing will put a temporary roadblock in the drive toward Web-to-host deployments, IT managers are still looking to Webify their mainframe applications. The payoff: self-service apps for customers to obtain oft-requested information without using expensive call centers.

- Plagued by Y2K. The Year 2000 bug will hit IT departments hard in 1999. In a study published last month by Y2K services company Cap Gemini, 98 percent of IT managers surveyed expect their companies to experience date-related system errors this year. Efforts to develop and deploy Internet technology and next-generation applications will be delayed as IT resources are re-deployed to fix the Y2K problem.

- Novell turnaround. Novell bounced back in 1998. But will its capital continue to rise when, inevitably, Windows 2000 ships? Eric Schmidt and company will do what they can, starting with a number of products and alliances centering on its directory jewel, Novell Directory Services.

USER STRATEGIES

- Bringing purchasing to life. General Electric has started to roll out a major upgrade to a purchasing system straddling 12 operating units. In the new year, GE must still prove that these types of intranet purchasing systems can save hundreds of millions of dollars, whether through tighter controls or improved information in contract negotiations.

- Chain rattling. Supply chains had uneven results in 1998, but many expect this to be the year when collaborative applications that track demand against supply take hold. Look for vendors Manugistics Inc., i2 Technologies Inc. and Logility Inc. to step up efforts to convince buyers that Internet supply chains are a must, not a maybe.

- Up in the air. Boeing, one of the most intranet-empowered companies on the planet, is trying to fly right in the crosswinds of a confused economy. And it's unclear whether Boeing's intranet and its distributed applications can rescue the embattled company.

- Stone faced. RosettaNet, a consortium of high-tech vendors and distributors, is creating standard product descriptions for computer products. If the effort reinvigorates the computer market with new demand for the latest products, it could spur development of standard Web catalogs in other verticals. If it bombs, it could take some shine off the real-time capabilities of extranet trading.

- ANXious legacy. Now that the auto industry has its own managed extranet network, what is it going to do with it? A spate of applications are vying for placement on the Automotive Network Exchange (ANX), but there may be bumps in the road. No other industry has quite as much invested in relatively new legacy systems. And carmakers need to decide whether to use ANX internationally or resort to existing infrastructure.

- Home away from home. If you've ever been frustrated in trying to access the Internet from your hotel room, there is hope on the horizon. This year the hotel industry will begin widespread implementation of several new technologies that will improve in-room network access speeds and allow hotels to offer high-speed Web access as a value-added service. Now if they could just do something about the room service.

- Take the Web train. Though not all material lends itself to distance-learning applications, constraints in travel budgets and time will force the widespread use of Web-based training this year. The Web allows for better interactivity, graphical content and real-time collaboration as well.

- New recruits. Web-based recruiting will continue to be a darling of IT and HR departments when they seek that special someone they can't otherwise find. At higher management levels, however, there's work to be done. Sites have to appeal to this elite group by ensuring privacy and getting the blessing of the retainer-fee agencies. Also look for consolidation of the current crowd of recruitment sites.

- What's on the network? Asset management will get a boost from Year 2000 remediation. As they sort through the bugs, technology managers will realize the need for better accountability and inventories of IT assets. Corporate budgets also will require better recordkeeping if IT wants to keep its budget growing.

- Shaky CIO paths. Although IT managers are the fair-haired children of Web-smart corporate honchos, they're not making it into the CEO ranks just yet. Many still have to overcome geek stereotypes and prove that IT can deliver corporate mandates on time and under budget.

- Hacking back. Hackers beware: IT managers are onto you. To protect their organizations against the new breed of cybercriminals, more IT managers will hire penetration services and ethical hackers to determine where their enterprises are vulnerable. Vulnerability scanners and intrusion detection will emerge as integral to corporate America's defense system.

- Full-service retail. E-business will be more than a buzzword for many companies. Web sites will offer a full breadth of services from customer support, order entry and access to inventories in a move to automate many processes. Progressive companies in retail and financial services will raise some eyebrows, but it will be another year before such full-service sites gain broad appeal and use.

- Schwab storms the Web. An overwhelming majority of Schwab's new customers will open accounts specifically so they can manage their accounts via the Web. Rumors will persist that the company will be acquired, but it may just be Schwab that makes a big acquisition. In any event, Schwab will add 1 million new accounts this year. "The Internet seems made for investing," said chairman Charles Schwab in his recent book, Charles Schwab's Guide to Financial Independence. "For a lot of people, going online makes investing more real."

- Health care headed for the ER? The nation's hospitals and medical institutions for the most part are still trying to come to terms with the pervasiveness of the Web and the inevitability of converting to Internet communications. But Year 2000 readiness presents a double whammy of sorts. The software issue will mean that IT managers must do more than just spruce up existing information systems. They also will need to ensure the readiness of medical and biomedical systems to avoid network disasters.

INTERNETWEEK 11/01/1999