Abbott new Liberal Leader

December 1st, 2009 at 12:25 pm by David Farrar

A massive upset in Australia. Not so much that Malcolm Turnbll got roleld as Liberal Leader, but that his successor is Tony Abbott.

news.com.au reports:

TONY Abbott has rolled Malcolm Turnbull to take over the Liberal leadership in a spill forced by deep divisions on the Opposition’s climate change policy.

Mr Abbott, Mr Turnbull and Joe Hockey contested a three-way spill at a special partyroom meeting in Parliament this morning.  Mr Abbott won by a single vote, 42-41.

Mr Hockey – who had been expected to win in a landslide – was eliminated in the first round of voting.  That sent Mr Abbott and Mr Turnbull into a head-to-head vote for the leadership.

But those deep divisions remain.  Yesterday Mr Hockey was demanding a free vote to decide Coalition policy on climate change early next year, if he were to agree to take on the leadership.

That angered right-wing Liberal powerbrokers and prompted Mr Abbott to stay in the race for the top job.  Turns out that was a good call.

A very good call. But the real winner is Kevin Rudd who will easily win re-election now I would say.

The vote to have a contest was 48 to 34. Then the first round ballot was Abbott 35, Turnbull 26 and Hockey 23. Turnbull almost got wiped out on the first ballot. Abbott picked up seven votes from Hockey and Turnbull picked up 15, for a final result of 42-41.

Abbott is a brawler, but hard to see him attracting widespread support to become PM.

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Well done Trevor

December 1st, 2009 at 12:12 pm by David Farrar

Trevor Mallard knocked a very impressive 30 minutes off his 2008 time for the 160 km Taupo Cycle Challenge.

In 2008, Trevor got 5:35:32. This was at the 50th percentile for male competitors so dead on the median.

In 2009 Trevor’s training got him 4:58:40. This is the 22nd percentile for male competitors. That is a huge improvement. All that training paid off.

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The 2025 taskforce recommendations

December 1st, 2009 at 11:31 am by David Farrar

The 2025 taskforce made a total of 48 recommendations for initiatives that will help close the income gap with Australia. The media will probably only highlight half a dozen, so I thought it would be useful to list them all here, and add my thoughts to them.

1. Government operating spending (as measured by core Crown operating expenses) as a share of GDP should be reduced by 2012/13 to 29 percent, the same share as in 2004 and 2005.

I think a target of 29% of GDP for operating spending is an excellent target, and will probably do more than anything else to help lift national incomes. There is an overwhelming amount of evidence that countries with the state at 25% to 30% of GDP grow much faster than those with larger burdens.

It is worth noting that 29% is what we had in 2005, so it is not a level unknown to us. The problem is that as surplus grew, Dr Cullen grew spending even faster in his desire to avoid tax cuts.

However it is not politically possible to achieve it by 2012/13. I would think by 2017 (end of three terms) might be possible, without causing major disruption.

2. Beyond 2012/13, government spending as a share of GDP should be reduced materially further. To achieve this, the level of core Crown operating expenses per person should be capped in real terms.

I generally support a cap in crown spending in per capita inflation adjusted terms. However this may restrict options too greatly as new technologies in medicine (that are expensive) might become unaffordable.

What I would suggest is for spending per capita to increase no more than CPI+1%.

3. The Public Finance Act should be amended to require the Minister of Finance to specify publicly a medium-term target for core Crown operating expenses, either in real per capita terms or as a share of GDP. In each Fiscal Strategy Report, the Minister of Finance should be required to report publicly on steps being taken to ensure that that goal is met.

This is very sensible, and even if 1 and 2 are not adopted, we should require Governments to be transparent about their spending plans.

4. The Government should undertake an in-depth examination of the scope for further institutional changes to strengthen long-term spending discipline. Examples of such institutions could include a Taxpayer Bill of Rights and/or an independent Fiscal Advisory Council.

Agree, so long as they are effective in standing up for taxpayers, and adding to fiscal discipline.

5. Expert taskforces should be established to scrutinise each major area of government spending, with a view to proposing more effective models for delivering those services that the public sector will continue to fund.

To some degree this has already been happening.

6. Processes for evaluating government spending should be materially strengthened, including greater use of rigorous and transparent cost-benefit analysis for both new spending proposals and periodic reviews of the value that is being obtained from existing spending programmes. Enhancing the quality and rigour of such analysis should be a key priority for the Treasury.

Agree.

Specific

7. Ambitious welfare reform measures should be undertaken as a matter of priority to reduce the very large number of people of working age currently receiving welfare benefits.

I agree. At a minimum we should do what Bill Clinton, a Democratic US President, did.

8. Early steps should be taken to lower the actual and prospective costs (as a share of GDP) of New Zealand Superannuation. The eligibility age should be increased progressively, with increases linked to ongoing improvements in life expectancy, and for some years payments should be indexed to the CPI rather than to after-tax wages.

Firstly the Government has said it will not do this, and I don’t want the Government to become one of broken promises. But I certainly expect a future Government to increase the age of eligibility in line with age expectancy. I’ve not yet received the data I need to make a call on whether part of superannuation (maybe from age 65 to 70) should be linked to CPI instead of average wage.

9. Remaining KiwiSaver subsidies should be abolished.

I do support retaining KiwiSaver with matching employer contributions. That provides enough incentive for people to take it up, so direct state subsidies are not needed. I think KiwiSaver has worked well for encouraging a savings culture amongst younger NZers especially.

However again the current Government got elected on a series of promises, and as much as ACT voters may not like it, it is not going to break its word on current commitments. But such changes do not have to happen before 2011. There may be room to seek a mandate for some of these changes at the next election. If one does not get a mandate for such changes, then you will get wiped out at the election, and have them reversed anyway – a lose/lose.

10. Health:
a. A funder-provider model should be reintroduced in the hospital sector, allowing much greater
private sector involvement in the provision of taxpayer-funded services.

I support greater private sector involvement, but I don’t think the sector could handle another major reform. And again, there were specific election commitments here.

b. Universal (unrelated to income or health status) subsidies for doctors’ visits should be abolished.

This I strongly agree with. Subsidies should be targeted to those who most need it. It is ridiculous that Eric Watson gets subsidized doctors visits. And it is very inefficient to tax people to then just give them that money back in subsidies.

c. Subsidies for prescription pharmaceuticals should be substantially reduced, with those in generally good health and not on low incomes paying the full price up to a cap.

Again, I generally agree, but with a note of caution that middle income families can’t afford a big increase in the costs of medicines. But a total cap may help with that.

11. Education:
a. The substantial increases in subsidies since 2005 for early childhood education and day-care should be reversed.

Again this was an election promise, so I don’t see change there. As a general rule I much prefer spending in the area of early childhood than tertiary but I don’t know enough about whether the increased subsidies have just rewarded families already using day-care facilities, or has allowed lower income families to access day-care.

b. A funder-provider model should be adopted for the school sector, allowing new providers to enter, with all-up per student funding equivalent to that for existing state schools.

Yes.

c. In the meantime, governance and accountability structures in the school sector need to be reformed to provide better incentives for stronger performance and greater accountability for teachers, principals and schools.

Too generic to say aye or nae too.

d. Government-imposed fee caps on university fees should be abolished.

I have long advocated these should go.

e. Market-based interest rates should be reintroduced for student loans.

This won’t happen as again it was an election promise, but for the future it would be sensible to have a policy of at least charging enough interest to cover inflation. Otherwise we are effectively paying people to borrow money they don’t need.

f. Governance of the public tertiary sector should be reformed, including exploring the rationalisation of the non-university sector and the establishment of universities as independent foundations.

Possibly. Need more details.

g. A full review should be undertaken to identify, and recommend reform of, those areas in which various government education agencies (Tertiary Education Commission, Education Review Office, Ministry of Education) have become overly prescriptive, and to explore other, less intrusive, monitoring and accountability options to achieve policy ends that pass a cost-benefit test.

Again, need more details.

Taxation
12. Average tax rates should be substantially reduced, as ambitious expenditure restraint permits. Cutting core Crown expenses to 29 percent of GDP would, for example, allow the maximum personal tax rate, and the company and trust tax rates, all to be reduced to 20 percent.

The Government’s goal is to get the top tax rates down to 30%. Let’s do that first and then look beyond.

13. Serious reforms should be undertaken to reduce the high effective marginal tax rates facing many middle income taxpayers with dependent children as a result of the abatement provisions of the Working for Families tax credit scheme.

Absolutely.

14. Reductions in average tax rates should be achieved by reducing income taxes, and doing so having regard both to the importance of administrative simplicity and minimisation of tax avoidance on the one hand, and to the evidence that taxes on capital income can be particularly detrimental to economic performance on the other.

Agree.

Government assets
15. All businesses owned by central government which are operating in markets where competition is actual or feasible should be sold.

I agree, but note again the Government has a clear election policy. I just hope that for 2011 they have a more flexible policy. At a minimum I would like to see some SOEs take in minority private sector shareholdings, so they gain the discipline of being a listed company,

16. Local governments should be strongly encouraged to sell their trading enterprises.

Agree, but not always one size fit all.

17. To strengthen governance while businesses remain in public ownership, an independent Crown Commercial Appointments Commission should be established, to be responsible for making recommendations to Ministers for Board positions on all Crown commercial enterprises and for vetting and publishing suitability assessments of all appointees to such boards.

This seems a good idea, and should be under the OIA, so if a Minister refuses a recommendation this will be transparent.

18. The New Zealand Superannuation Fund should be wound up and its assets used to reduce gross government debt.

I agree, but again note the clear Government policy means this won’t happen.

19. Congestion charging should be introduced in central Auckland and in any other cities where a cost/benefit analysis supports doing so. Full road-user charging, differentiated by place and time of road
use, should be introduced as it becomes economically efficient to do so.

Strongly agree. Here I am with the Greens. Road users should pay for the costs of roads.

20. Rigorous and transparent cost-benefit analyses should restored to the prime place in guiding decisions on all public capital spending, including infrastructure spending. All such cost-benefit analyses for projects involving the outlay of more than $50 million should be formally reviewed by Treasury.

I would have thought this is already the case.

21. Mining:
a. A governance framework should be put in place to facilitate the best economic use of those mineral resources in which the Crown has a direct ownership interest (under both land and sea).

Not sure what is meant by such a governance framework but I support better economic use of our mineral base.

b. Mining developments on or under sensitive Crown land should generally be permitted provided that they pass a full cost-benefit analysis.

Agree, but recognizing that costs must include conservation, environmental and tourism costs. Applications should be decided on a case by case basis.

c. Development of mineral resources should be undertaken by private operators, with the Crown securing its financial interest through appropriate royalty-type arrangements.

Agree.

Regulation
General
22. A Regulatory Responsibility Bill should be enacted, based on the draft proposed in the recent report of the Regulatory Responsibility Taskforce.

Agree.

23. Property rights should be added to the list of rights specified in the Bill of Rights Act.

Also agree. It would be great to have Crown Law advising Parliament if proposed laws breach property rights of certain individuals or groups.

24. Substantially improving the quality of regulatory impact analysis being undertaken before legislation is introduced and/or government regulatory powers are extended should be treated as a matter of high priority by Ministers and central government agencies. Such analysis should be an integral part of all policy development and review processes, to ensure that the full costs and benefits, to all sectors, are appropriately and rigorously factored into government decision-making.

Agree, and I think Rodney has underway.

25. An independent Productivity Commission should be established as a centre of microeconomic and regulatory analytical expertise. The Commission should be authorised (and resourced) to undertake reviews of matters referred to it by Ministers, and of issues it identifies as requiring further in-depth analysis and research.

Have long advocated an independent Productivity Commission. The Australian one has performed well with bipartisan support.

Specific
26. A high quality independent taskforce should be constituted as a matter of urgency to review resource management law from first principles, including identifying the policy goals that should be served by such legislation and assessing the best ways of achieving those goals.

I am unsure how much this differs from the RMA reviews underway.

27. When determining the zoning of land for residential purposes, local authorities should be required by statute to take explicit account of any differences between the price of residential-zoned undeveloped land and the price of other undeveloped land in similar areas. These differences should be reported on by local authorities each year, with a strong presumption that scarcity of zoned land, as reflected primarily in price differences, should prompt action to increase the supply of residential land.

Sounds sensible. Land scarcity is what partly has led to a runway property market.

28. A system of tradable water rights should be established urgently.

Agree in principle.

29. Labour market:
a. Labour law should be amended to strengthen the freedom of negotiation between workers and their employers, including, for example, streamlining provisions governing dismissal of workers, and putting less emphasis on procedural matters.

Agree. The 90 day grievance free period for small businesses seems to be working very well with no horror stories about it.

b. Statutory provisions allowing enforceable mutually-agreed probationary periods for new employees should be extended, from the current maximum of 90 days for those working for small firms to a maximum of 12 months for employees of firms of any size.

That goes beyond my comfort level. Maybe 6 months for small firms, and 90 days for larger firms. Generally a dud employee can be detected fairly early on and 12 months seems too long to me.

c. For employees earning in excess of $100,000 per annum, employment relations should be governed by the standard provisions of contract law rather than by the Employment Relations Act.

That is what the situation was before the ECA for all non union employees. I would want to see data on how many employees over $100k are using the ERA provisions to see if there is a problem.

d. The youth minimum wage should be reinstated as a matter of urgency, and minimum wage rates should be reduced to the same ratio to average wages that prevailed in 1999.

I agree on reinstating the youth minimum wage. The abolition appears to have been a disaster with the blowout in youth unemployment through the recession. I do not support turning the clock back on the adult minimum wage but agree there should be a ratio of the minimum to the median wage.

30. Immediate notice should be given that from 1 January 2011 all remaining tariffs will be removed.

Agree, Disgraceful the Government has extended them to 2015.

31. Foreign investment restrictions should be further reviewed, starting with a strong predisposition that a much more liberal regime should be introduced.

I think this is underway and has been mainly implemented.

32. Emissions trading legislation and any future emissions reduction targets the Government adopts should be independently monitored and periodically reviewed. Such reviews should focus on monitoring the economic impact of any carbon abatement goals, and the impact of chosen abatement regimes (here and abroad) on prospects for achieving the 2025 goal.

I think this is in the ETS legislation.

33. A review of the Commerce Act should be undertaken, with a focus on restoring the primacy of economic efficiency considerations and long-term consumer interests in the design and conduct of competition policy.

Seems sensible.

34. The Government should strongly encourage the transformation of Fonterra into a conventional company structure with fully-traded outside capital, using any appropriate instruments at its disposal.

Don’t know enough to comment.

35. Zespri’s monopoly on the export of kiwifruit to markets outside Australia should be removed.

In principle I agree.

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The North of Israel

December 1st, 2009 at 10:43 am by David Farrar

On Friday we went up north. First stop was the Caesarea National Park, which has the ruins of the city set up by King Herod.

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The park has lots of ruins, and also a good museum explaining the history of the area.

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A group shot by the harbour. It was constructed to be a major port – around 100,000 square metres in size. The constructed a reef by dropping bales of volcanic ash into the sea, which turns them into solid concrete.

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We then went to the Aaronsohn House. They were a family who operated as a spy network in WWI for the British against the Turks.

27 year old Sarah Aaronsohn was captured and killed herself after four days of torture, so she would not reveal her colleagues.

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Despite being way north of Jerusalem, we ran into a Cabinet Minister. She is with the Labor Party, and I think has the commerce facility. Despite Davidi being with Likud, he is very good friends with the Minister – they were hugging each other when they ran into each other. Israel is a very small place, like NZ.

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We then went to the old city of Tsefat (aka Zefat and Safed). On the way we visited a couple of war memorials. At most tourist sites they have a machine which will play an audio recording in Hebrew or English. They were really good to listen to – giving you a five minute history of what happened there.

Tsefat is a very old city, and many Orthodox Jews live there. Almost every second building is a synagogue. It is one of four holy cities, along with Jerusalem, Hebron and Tiberias. We saw the (outside of the) former home of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, who left in 1948.

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Direct Democracy

December 1st, 2009 at 9:29 am by David Farrar

This story from Switzerland is a prime example of why direct democracy, rather than representative democracy, can be a bad idea.

Switzerland became the first country in Europe today to vote to curb the religious practices of Muslims when a referendum banning the construction of minarets on mosques was backed by a solid majority.

The surprise result, banning minarets in a country that has only four mosques with minarets and no major problems with Islamist militancy, stunned the Swiss establishment …

This is simply a horrendous decision. Freedom of religion is a fundamental human right, and should not be at the whim of referenda.

The campaign to ban minarets was described by the country’s justice minister as a “proxy war” for drumming up conflict between ethnic Swiss and Muslim immigrants. But the ban was supported by a majority of 57.5%, 20 percentage points more than predicted in opinion polls in the run-up to the vote.

This is interesting in that many back the ban, but did not want to admit to it. The advantage of parliamentary votes is they are public and people have to stand by their vote.

There are problems in Europe with Islamic extremism and non-integration. But the solution is not to ban minarets on mosques, targeting an entire religion.

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General Debate 01 December 2009

December 1st, 2009 at 8:00 am by David Farrar
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2025 Taskforce Recommendations

November 30th, 2009 at 5:51 pm by David Farrar

Yet to read the full paper, but the Herald reports major recommendations are:

Dr Brash revealed 35 recommendations today but the centrepiece was to reduce government spending to 2005 levels of 29 per cent of gross domestic product by 2012-13.

This could be done by:

* Reducing benefit numbers through “ambitious” welfare reform;

* Ending Kiwisaver subsidies;

* Scrapping the New Zealand Superannuation Fund and using the money to pay off debt;

* Raising the age of superannuation eligibility; and

* Cutting universal subsidies for health and education.

Of these savings, $7 billion would be used to reduce all income and business taxes to a top rate of 20 per cent.

Dr Brash said unless tax and spending were slashed the Government’s “ambitious” goal could not be achieved.

“There may be some other cunning plan, but I am not aware of it,” Dr Brash said.

He said the proposed cuts were “not a massacre”, but a winding back of spending that had not been effective since 2005.

The taskforce’s other policy prescriptions included:

* Reducing the minimum wage and reintroducing a lower minimum youth wage;

* Changing employment laws to make it easier to sack workers;

* Extending probationary employment periods to a year for all workers;

As I type this I am literally on board NZ1 to Auckland sitting by the gate in Los Angeles. The wireless can still pick up the Koru Club signal – just. Will blog my thoughts on the different recommendations on Tuesday when back home.

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Likud and Zionism

November 30th, 2009 at 3:00 pm by David Farrar

The rest of Thursday was learning about some of the history of Zionism and Likud specifically.  The first stop was the Menachem Begin Centre. Begin, who signed the peace treaty with Egypt, was effectively the third leader of the revisionist zionism movement. The modern founder of zionism was Theodor Herzl, and then Vladimir “Ze’ev” Jabotinsky led the revisionist faction, which Begin then led.

Begin died in 1992, and usually tops the polls of most admired former prime ministers. However for most of his career he was a terrorist/freedom fighter (depending on point of view) and was very much a political outcast until the 1970s.

The centre in his name, obviously is very favourable to him. They have a very nice set of displays, and audio-visual effects. The tour guide, who works for the centre, was a young Canadian girl who emigrated to Israel just two years ago, leaving her family behind.

Begin was a leader within the Irgun, and there is no doubt by today’s standards some of what they did would be called terrorism – especially the murder of the Sergeants. The British response was not much better.

There was also the infamous bombing of the King David Hotel, and to this day, there are bitter different points of views between the UK and Israel on it.

Not once in my time in Israel did I hear any demonisation of the Palestinian Authority. The two countries that were always criticised were in fact Britain (for former acts) and Iran (for current support of Hamas, Hizbollah etc). Britain was as much the enemy in the mid 1940s, as was the Arab states.

After the war of independence, tensions between the Ben-Gurion Government and Begin’s Irgun were massive, and in fact led to some bloodshed. Begin’s decision not to retaliate is said by his supporters to have prevented a civil war. Ben-Gurion seemed to despise Begin and would not even mention his name for several decades.

In 1977 Begin broke the 30 year monopoly of the Labour Party on power and became Prime Minister. His entire career had been as a hard liner who was against turning over any of the occupied territories to its neighbours. Yet he signed a peace treaty with Egypt in 1979, which set the precedent of land for peace, handing over the entire Sinai peninsula. He won the Nobel Peace Prize along with Anwar Sadat and Shimon Peres. His peace treaty was bitterly opposed my many in his own party.

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The signatures on the final page of the peace treaty.

He also bombed the Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981, and in 1986 approved the invasion fo Lebanon, which eventually led to him retiring in 1983. He was a recluse until his death in 1992. One of the reasons for his popularity is he was seen as a simple man of the people – and refused to be buried on Mount Herzl, but instead on the Mount of Olives next to two young Irgun fighters who killed themselves in jail to avoid execution by the British.

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A view of old Jerusalem from the Begin Centre.

After the centre, we went to the West Bank. It was fascinating to see first hand parts of the occupied territories. Two things struck me. The first is how big the West Bank is, and how much room there. It is not some crowded area like Gaza. The second is how close many Palestinian and Israeli cities and settlements are to each other. Don’t think there is some nice straight line you can draw between the two.

Much of the West Bank will form a future Palestinian state. But it is not as simple as just going back to the 1967 boundaries. Even the Palestinians say they are not expecting Israel to abandon major cities in the area. What is likely to happen is that any area Israel keeps, might be replaced with some territory elsewhere from sovereign Israel. This can be made into a win-win but the devil is in the details.

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A typical shot of the West Bank.

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This is at the top of a strategically important hill in the 1967 war. The military are very reluctant to give up this area, as they say they could not prevent an invasion from reaching major cities without it. That is of course their point of view.

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Below is a Palestinian town.

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A photo of the group, in the West Bank. Regardless of the politics of the area, it was a fascinating place to view.

Then we headed to Tel Aviv where we visited the Jabotinsky Institute. This was the only part I did not enjoy much. It mainly consisted of a lecture on Jabotinsky, and the presentation was too zealous – mainly about how all the other Zionists turned out wrong and Jabotinsky was right. Was interesting to learn about him (I had never heard of him before), but what should have taken one hour took two and a half.

We then checked into out hotel in Tel Aviv. Now the hotels generally in Israel had been three star ones to keep costs down. The total cost for the six days was only 500 Euros, and that included hotels, food, travel, driver, and entry tickets.

Now the hotel in Jerusalem was very basic (probably a 2 to 2.5 star in reality) but okay to sleep in. But the hotel in Tel Aviv was a 0 star. You opened the door and immediately saw a cockroach. Not in just one room, and the first three rooms we opened. We gave up after that. Also I noticed the beds had just sheets on them, no sleeping covers. We eventually worked out based on the neighbourhood that this is one of those hotels that you normally rent by the hour.

We staged a walkout and found a much nicer one down the road. The owner actually got offended we were leaving. She was lucky we did not report it to the health authorities for demolition. Yuck. On the plus side it allowed us to hassle our host greatly about how he tried to book us into a prostitute hotel.

Then Thursday night was night clubbing until around 2 am in Tel Aviv. It has a active party scene. I had to cut out early to write my NBR column :-(

What I gained most from the day is understanding that the issues around Israel did not start in 1948 or 1967. The zionist movement grew out of the late 1800s, as a response to the discrimination and worse of the Jewish populations in almost every country on Earth. People will disagree on whether or not the response was the correct one, but it is simplistic to see it as merely to provide a homeland after the events of the Holocaust – the move for a homeland had been steadily underway for some decades. Most of the planning happened when there was no Palestine – when the area was part of the Ottoman Empire.

Today Israel is an established fact, and there is little doubt there will be a Palestinian state at some stage. But under what conditions, and what boundaries is a long way from being resolved.

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The Church of the Holy Sepulchre

November 30th, 2009 at 9:00 am by David Farrar

Thursday morning we visited the Church of the Holy Sepulchre.

The Church is a sacred site for many Christians, who believe is the site of the death and resurrection of Jesus. Apart from the spiritual aspects, it is a magnificent ancient building and is a must see.

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This is the entrance to the Church, which was constructed around 300 AD.

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This is the Stone of Annointing, claimed to be the spot where Jesus was prepared for burial.

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One of the many artworks on the walls.

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Upstairs is the purported site of the crucifixion, You go up a narrow winding rock staircase to get to what is called Golgotha. You can see the rock the cross was placed in, and down below is also the rock that sealed his tomb.

Whether or not you are a believer, the church is a sacred place, and was a real highlight for me.

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General Debate 30 November 2009

November 30th, 2009 at 8:00 am by David Farrar
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The Knesset

November 30th, 2009 at 2:20 am by David Farrar

Catching up on the last few days, as have had no time to blog.

Wednesday afternoon we visited the Knesset, and were very fortunate to not just have a private tour, but also hosted by the Knesset Chairman, Speaker Reuven Rivlin. We met in his private offices until he had was suddenly summoned to a meeting with the Prime Minister, to be told the PM was recommending a 10 month freeze on settlements.

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The Speaker with the Swedish contingent, and Davidi (our host from Young Likud).

Rivlin was the Likud candidate for President in 2007, and has a reasonable chance of becoming President at the next election. His family have resided in Jerusalem since around 1800.

Just as Israelis are very proud of their Supreme Court, they are also proud that they have a universal democracy. There are no electorate seats in Israel – it is proportional representation for every party that gets over 2%. The threshold used to be 1%, then 1.5% and now is 2%. Some advocate it should keep going higher to prevent the small extremist parties. There are 18 parties in the 120 member Knesset, but they stood under 12 lists only.

Of the 120 Knesset members, 13 are Arabs. Some of them have been elected Deputy Speaker, and one has served as Acting President.

We also went and observed the Knesset in session. It is quite different to the NZ Parliament. The MK speakign does so from a platform next to the Speaker. The MKs themselves sit in four horseshoes (in the shape of the symbol on their coat of arms – its formal name escapes me).

Their debates are not just confined to passing laws (as NZ is except for question time and general debate). They debate many varied issues every day. However where it is like NZ, is that few attend at any one time.

The visitors gallery is behind soundproof glass. We were told that no matter what we said, no one would hear it. I was tempted to jump up and start yelling out Allah Ackbar to test that assertion, but luckily my common sense won out that this would be a very bad thing to do :-)

The artwork in the Knesset is stunning – some of them took a decade to complete. It is a building well worth a tour.

As I mentioned in my NBR column, I was surprised at the degree of pragmatism I encountered amongst some of the politicians. You realise after a while that so called bottom lines are initial negotiating positions. We saw that the day we were there with the freeze on settlements (which is a good thing).

After the Knesset we had a meeting with Yigal Palmor, who has one of the more difficult jobs in Israel – he is the Spokesperson for the Foreign Affairs Ministry. Again fascinating discussions about prospects for peace agreements, and it was during that discussion the idea of both Israel and a future Palestine being part of NATO (to guarantee secure borders) was discussed.

I asked if the settlement freeze will make his job easier, as it will be popular internationally and he (correctly) predicted that the Palestinians would reject it as inadequate. He stressed the US reaction is very important. Paraphrasing, if the US supports Israel on something, then most of the rest of the world will offer mild or muted criticism only. But if the US itself is critical (even mildly), then Israel will face harsh denunciations around the world.

Also talked Iran with him, and asked outright if he thinks Iran would be more willing to drop its assumed nuclear weapons programme, if Israel disposed of its nuclear weapons. I was somewhat amused that he didn’t even try and deny Israel had nuclear weapons – he just said that he thinks Iran would want them regardless due to Pakistan and India.

We also have two impromptu meetings in the streets. One was with the Deputy Mayor of Jerusalem. He is a very close friend of Davidi, the Young Likud Chair, despite the fact he is also the Young Labour Chair.

We also ran into Davidi’s former army commander. He is now a General, and his job is head of counter-terrorism for the Armed Forces. Only had a brief chat to him, but we had dinner the next night with a former Deputy Chief of General Staff, who was in charge of the Northern Command.

A very interesting day all up.

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Legal Aid review

November 29th, 2009 at 11:11 am by David Farrar

Yet to read the full report itself, but the Herald sums it up:

A damning review of legal aid says a sea change is needed to fix a system undermined by incompetent, unscrupulous and sometimes corrupt lawyers looking after their own interests.

The Legal Aid Review report released this morning recommended the Legal Services Agency, which administers the aid, lose its independent status and be folded into the Justice Ministry.

It said administrative costs were out of control and raised serious concerns about how the agency operated which had opened the system up to abuse by bad lawyers.

Wow that is much more damning and much more a radical solution than I expected. Some of the issues found:

* lawyers making sentencing submissions without having read the pre-sentence report;

* lawyers ignorant of legal principles and not realising their own ignorance;

* lawyers failing to turn up to court;

* “car boot lawyers” using a District Court law library phone as their office number and using interviewing rooms as their offices;

* lawyers gaming the system by delaying a plea or changing pleas part-way through the process to maximise payments – Dame Margaret said unverified sources believed up to 80 per cent of lawyers practising in Manukau District Court could be gaming the system;

* lawyers who demanded or accepted top up payments from clients who do not understand legal aid;

* widespread abuse of the preferred lawyer policy by duty solicitors, including taking backhanders for recommending particular lawyers to applicants.

I can’t imagine this report will just be filed somewhere to gather dust. Watch this space.

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Is Lisa Lewis the NZ businesswoman of the year?

November 29th, 2009 at 10:53 am by David Farrar

The SST asks the question:

Lewis, who last week also appeared online for Australian Penthouse, has been nominated for a prestigious national women’s business award, the Veuve Clicquot Business Woman Award – a title held previously by fashion designer Annah Stretton and reality TV queen Julie Christie.

Lewis has been nominated by Hong Kong lawyer Cathy Odgers, the author of a blog written under the pseudonym Cactus Kate.

Odgers said her nomination was the result of having a “hunt around for something to do where I could contribute in a life-changing way to another woman deserving of assistance in fighting discrimination in her chosen profession”.

The nomination procedure requires an extensive submission. Examples must be given of corporate social responsibility by the nominee, entrepreneurial drive, leadership skills and financial success.

Odgers described Lewis as an online pioneer in New Zealand for the provision of sexual entertainment services to a registered pay-per-view clientele. Of Lewis’s corporate social responsibility she writes: “Hamilton is a small town and in purveying her personal services she respects client confidentiality in a manner that would leave many lawyers and accountants hanging their heads in shame.”

Odgers said examples of Lewis’s entrepreneurial drive were her dedication and training “to ensure she can deliver the quality of service and required aesthetics her profession demands”.

“Lisa has kept her body in incredible shape using a complex cardio and weight-training regime combined with a stringent diet that many women would run away from in horror.”

Her leadership style was direct and she epitomised a Kiwi “can-do” attitude, said Odgers. “She fits into any social circumstance, whether surrounded by the grace and charm required of high society sipping Veuve Clicquot or with sweaty rugby players at a local pub over a beer.”

Kiwiblog wishes Lisa all the best in winning the title.

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General Debate 29 November 2009

November 29th, 2009 at 8:00 am by David Farrar
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General Debate 28 November 2009

November 28th, 2009 at 8:00 am by David Farrar
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History and Government of Israel

November 27th, 2009 at 6:13 pm by David Farrar

Our first day in Israel was sightseeing around old Jerusalem. On our second day, we did a mixture of history and current affairs, thanks to our hosts, Young Likud.

First up we went to The Greats of the Nation on Mount Herzl. Theodor Herzl was the founder of modern Zionism, and seen as the seer of the State of Israel even though he died in 1904.
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This is the memorial to Herzl, whose remains were moved to Israel in 1949.

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On the tomb on Yitzmak Rabin, the Israeli Prime Minister who struck peace with with the PLO through the Oslo Accords, and was assassinated in 1995.

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And Golda Meir, one of the first elected female leaders in the world, when she became PM in 1969.

We then went Yad Vashem, which is the Holocaust Memorial.

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This is a photo of a photo taken from a liberated concentration camp. At this stage we were told no photos are allowed, which is a pity as so many of the scenes there need to be shown as widely as possible.

The museum is very moving, and very detailed. There is a huge amount of documentation, plus audio and visual displays. Allow two hours at least. I thought I knew a lot about the Holocaust, but I learnt a lot more at the museum.

At the very end you can search their database of holocaust victims. I spent a while searching for various relatives, which made it very real.

The museum covers well not just the Holocaust, but the conditions that led to it, and also the many people who risked their lives to help the victims.

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A Holocaust monument in the exterior of the museum.

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Female soldiers are a very common sight in Israel as military service is compulsory for both genders.

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This is a picture of one of the Supreme Court courtrooms. The Israeli Supreme Court is much hallowed in Israel, as the vision was to found a country based on the rule of law.

The Supreme Court is unusual, in that it is not just an appellate court. It does hear appeals from District Courts (akin to our High Courts) but also is the High Court of Justice and has original jurisdiction on some matters such as petitions against the state. So rather than be a leisurely few cases a year supreme court, it hears over 5,000 cases a year.

The reasons for this is the British, it seems. When the British ruled the area, they did not want the lower courts hearing petitions against their actions, so they

It can and does strike down laws that conflict with the Basic Law. Rather controversially it just a few days ago declared a law allowing for private prisons (I think owned not just managed but am not sure) to breach human rights for prisoners. It tends to be seen as an activist or liberal court, but in a country with no constitution and no existence until 1948, they have been forced to create their own law, relying on overseas precedents where possible.

The Court has 15 members (was 12 until recently) and normally sits in benches of three. More important cases can have bigger benches, and one case had 11 Judges sit on it. There must be an odd number.

We also went to the Knesset, which I will blog about in a new post.

The Supreme Court Building is quite magnificent – a mixture of old and new. Definitely worth a tour.

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Obama’s emissions target

November 27th, 2009 at 3:00 pm by David Farrar

Barack Obama has said the US will wim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 17% by 2020, but this is 17% on their 2005 levels, not 1990 levels.

The growth from 1990 to 2005 has been around 17%, so in fact their target is to be around the same as in 1990 – a 0% change.

Now bear in mind the Greens have got hysterical because NZ has *only* pledged a 10% to 20% reduction on 1990 levels. Obama’s target makes NZ’s target seem wildly ambitious, not bottom of the pack.

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Peter Gibbons worked with Weatherston

November 27th, 2009 at 10:01 am by Peter Gibbons

 It has become fashionable in some parts of the right-wing blogosphere, particularly the prickly part in Hong Kong and the oily section in Auckland, to deride Mr Farrar’s conservative credentials and indeed to allegedly expel him from the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy (though I believe he still has his authentic membership certificate).
 
One topic however on which Mr Farrar was undoubtedly still strong, vitriolic and fiery was the trial of now-convicted murderer Clayton Weatherston.  So strong, vitriolic and fiery was he (and his legions of devoted commenters) that the Solicitor-General actually took a look at the issue before deciding against taking any action against this blog.  As a result though, Mr Farrar adopted a much stricter policy about what could and couldn’t appear on his blog during trials.
 
Today, Justice Minister Simon Power announced “the partial defence of provocation is to be abolished after the Crimes (Provocation Repeal) Amendment bill was passed last nigth [sic].”  Weatherston had controversially attempted to use this defence at his trial which seemed to most simply to be an excuse to besmirch the victim and showcase his ego.
 
In a number of his posts Mr Farrar stressed he did not know Clayton Weatherston or his victim Sophie Elliott. 
 
Well, I did know Clayton Weatherston.  I worked with him for almost a year.
 
I worked with him at Treasury.  I was an analyst, he was the team’s economist.  He gave me the distinct initial impression that he had been at Treasury for some time and was quite senior though I was told later he had only been there a few months before me and was a summer intern who had stayed on.
 
His role was to support the policy team with economic advice and expertise though I saw little evidence of this.  He always seemed to be working on ill-defined special projects which no one else knew about.  He was very quiet, kept to himself mostly but was not unpleasant.
 
In one of our rare conversations, he talked quite excitedly about being the Shaq the Cat mascot in Dunedin for several years.  He got letters from Shaquille O’Neal’s lawyers telling him to stop breaking copyright and was warned by the Police for inciting opposition fans with obscene gestures involving his tail.
 
This seemed highly out of character for the quiet, almost shy economist I saw at work.
 
In terms of style, even then he had a haircut that showcased the studied deliberate messiness which only half an hour with hair gel can achieve.  He either wore the most casual, hippest clothes or a hugely expensive suit.  There was no middle ground in his wardrobe.
 
He left Treasury to return to Otago University.  I think he was studying the economics of sports gambling and seemed to be looking forward to the change.  His going away event was low-key and sparsely attended.  He rather faded out and I did not think much more about him for many years.
 
When I saw the breaking news regarding the death of Sophie and the arrest of Weatherston, I was simply shocked and appalled.  I had no sense that Weatherston could be capable of such evil.  Certainly, he was aloof, faintly arrogant but not the most unpleasant person I had ever worked with.  Not even in the top ten. 

I cannot pretend to understand why he did what he did.  Frankly, I do not wish to. 
 
I can say that I think the fact that Sophie was leaving Dunedin to start work in Treasury was an issue for Weatherston.  By all accounts Sophie was extremely smart and personable.  It is likely that she would have superseded Weatherston’s limited legacy at Treasury very quickly.   My sense is that this realisation would not have sat well with him.  Beyond that, there is nothing I can add.

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Humour transplants needed

November 27th, 2009 at 8:23 am by David Farrar

My God. Someone please ring up Hell Pizza and ask them to deliver some humour transplants to the Labour Caucus Room.

ACT staffer Andrew Falloon joked on his Facebook status that he is off to the Abel Tasman National Park for 8 nights before Gerry Brownlee rips it up and Charles Chauvel both uses this in a question in Parliament, and blogs about it on Red Alert.

Really that is just so sad. I am so glad I no longer work in Parliament if I have to put up with crap like that.

At least Gerry Brownlee shows he still has an excellent sense of humour:

Hon GERRY BROWNLEE: This summer will be the largest exploration activity ever seen in New Zealand waters.

Hon Darren Hughes: That’s just the Minister on the beach.

Hon GERRY BROWNLEE: Seven offshore wells are being drilled, and thousands of kilometres of seismic data are being shot. In fact, New Zealand is ranked in the top 10 countries for offshore exploration wells. This year we have put in place a seismic data acquisition programme to continue the success. It is a good programme. I know that you do not like us responding to interjections, Mr Speaker, but I just want to say that in order that no one rushes to the beach to save the whales, I will be publishing the dates that I am on holiday.

Heh.

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Goff’s u-turn

November 27th, 2009 at 7:50 am by David Farrar

My goodness, Phil Goff is desperate. He has actually done a full u-turn on his party’s removal of the right for Maori to test their common law property rights in court.

The Herald reports:

Labour leader Phil Goff has re-opened the political warfare over the foreshore and seabed law, saying the Government’s plan to repeal it will divide the country again.

Mr Goff yesterday changed Labour’s position on the law, saying it was working well the way it was now, and repeal would make “wounds fester”.

What an idiot. He doesn’t think there are festering wounds at the moment.

Goff is calculating (probably correctly) that he will get a short-term boost from this in the polls, which will shore up his leadership. However he is making his job of being able to form a Government after the next election harder, as the chances of Labour and the Greens by themselves achieving 62 or more seats is very remote. Maybe he is counting on Winston making it back?

No Right Turn has let loose:

Today in Palmerston North (of course), Labour leader Phil Goff gave a speech to Grey Power (of course) attacking the government for dealing with the Maori Party, “reopening” Treaty settlements, and revisiting the Foreshore and Seabed Act. While carefully caveated (of course), the underlying message was loud and clear: “National is in bed with the bloody Maaris”. …

Well, fuck him. Racism has no place in our society, and a proper left-wing party would be fighting against it, not engendering and exploiting it for political gain. Our defining belief is equality, and that means equality for all, not just Pakeha. If Labour doesn’t understand that, and wants to go down this path, then its just another reason for me to vote Green.

I think it is quite legitimate for Labour to say they have problems with the ETS and associated deals on Treaty settlements. Also legitimate to say they support the Foreshore & Seabed Act. But when Goff starts chucking in stuff about how John Key didn’t condemn Hone Harawira badly enough (which is hilarious when you consider Goff voted against the privileges committee report into Winston Peters), it is a pretty blatant attempt to do you know what.

The recent Marae-Digipoll showed Labour’s support amongst Maori had collapsed massively since the election. I guess they have decided not to try and change that, and hope they pick up enough Grey Power votes in exchange.

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Middle East politics

November 27th, 2009 at 7:15 am by David Farrar

My weekly Dispatch from St Johnnysburg at NBR, has become a Dispatch from Tel Aviv, on Middle East politics.

I discuss Iran and nuclear weapons and Palestine.

Comments and feedback can be left at NBR.

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General Debate 27 November 2009

November 27th, 2009 at 6:43 am by David Farrar
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Jerusalem

November 26th, 2009 at 3:00 pm by David Farrar

On Tuesday I flew from Tehran to Tel Aviv via Turkey. Iran will not let you enter if you have been to Israel previously, so I guessed they would not be that keen on me heading there straight afterwards, so I had been very careful  not to mention the Israel part of my trip publicly.

I got a bit nervous at the airport though when I realised that as I was on the same airline from Tehran to Istanbul and Istanbul to Tel Aviv, they could see the next leg, as they asked me if I wanted to check my bags all the way through. I very quietly said yes.

The flight to Istanbul was a nightmare as the airport fogged in, and we circled for an hour then diverted to Ankara, refueled and then went back to Istanbul. A two hour flight took almost six hours, and I missed my connecting flight. Got transferred onto a later one okay though.

Just as Iran is not that keen on visitors who have been to Israel, Israel is not that keen on people who have just flown in from Iran. At the gate in Istanbul, I was taken aside and questioned for around 10 minutes about why I had been in Iran, how long would I be in Israel etc.

Eventually got onto flight. When we went through passport control at Tel Aviv, I thought it would be even worse, but the officer accepted my story straight away, and took only a couple of minutes.

Met up with the rest of the group. We have five Swedes, two Finns two Austrians, a Swiss and one Kiwi.

Around 5 pm we went to the Shrine of the Book. This museum houses the Dead Sea Scrolls and the Aleppo Codex. Most people will have heard of the Dead Sea Scrolls, but now the Codex, which is basically the oldest existing bible – around 3,000 years old. It isn’t a bible per se – more the authoritative source for the bible. So you get some idea of its historical value.

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This is a photo of a model of old Jerusalem at the Shrine of the Book. The model is huge – only a 50:1 ratio.

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Then went to the Mount of Olives and saw some of the 150,000 graves there, plus the superb view of old Jerusalem.

At 8 pm we hit Old Jerusalem. I can’t describe how wonderful the city is – such a sense of history. We visited the Western (or Wailing) Wall, and also had tours through the Generations Centre and best of all though the tunnels underneath the wall.

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This is the base of the Western Wall. All day and night many Jews go there to pray.

The original temple here was the Temple of Solomon. After that was destroyed in 586 BC, a second temple was constructed by Herod in around 19 BC. The wall is part of the remains of that temple. Judaism believes a third temple will be constructed there when the Messiah comes.

The original temple was on the Temple Mount, which is the holiest site in Judaism as it is taught as the place where God created Adam. It is also sacred to Islam as the site where Muhammed ascended to heaven.

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The tunnels under the Western Wall are incredible. So much history down there. Not one for claustrophobics though. Also a bad place to be if there is an earthquake!

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Also did a walk through the alleyways and bazaars of East Jerusalem. This is basically Palestinian/Arab area, and is likely to be officially part of a future Palestine state. While there has been violence in the past, things were generally very relaxed in this area, with people from all religions and races walking about.

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More on monetary policy

November 26th, 2009 at 2:00 pm by David Farrar

Matt Nolan blogs:

Monetary policy at heart isn’t about “unemployment” or “output” or “the exchange rate” (which is a relative price).  Monetary policy is about money, it is about the supply of money, it is about the price level and inflation.  The “interest rate” is merely an instrument central banks use to control the money supply and keep “inflation stable”.  By keeping inflation stable we increase certainty and we help make sure that money remains a good indicator of the relative value of REAL goods and services.

The idea that we should mess around with this to tinker with other things misses the point – if our exchange rate is funny, unemployment is high, or output is below potential we have to ask “what issues in REAL economy are causing this”.  Monetary policy in itself is irrelevant – monetary policy IS about money, it IS about inflation, it IS about expectations regarding these nominal variables, it IS NOT about real economic variables.

I am not saying that monetary policy hasn’t moved real variables – but in a world where monetary policy IS solely focused on inflation and consistent expectations is a world where monetary policies impact on the real economy is at its best.

It worries me greatly that Labour have abandoned support for a bipartisan monetary policy consensus.

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Catholics and girls move up the order

November 26th, 2009 at 12:00 pm by David Farrar

The Telegraph reports:

Gordon Brown has paved the way for sweeping changes to the 300-year-old law which prevents Roman Catholics ascending to the throne.

Mr Brown has made it clear he also wants to change the rule of primogeniture, which prevents women taking their place ahead of men in the line to the throne.

The Prime Minister will travel to a Commonwealth summit in Trinidad today and will raise the controversial issue fellow heads of government.

Good to see some modernisation. It has been bizarre that Catholics have been barred from becoming the New Zealand Head of State.

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